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“It is not the storm that destroys a ship, but the leak left unattended.” The global economy in 2025 appears stable, yet beneath its surface lie unattended leaks like inflation fatigue, debt overhang, and waning productivity. Like the uneasy calm before a storm, this phase reflects a deceptive equilibrium, where short-term indicators conceal long-term structural weakness. Global forecasts currently suggest slow growth rather than a coordinated global recession by the end of 2025. However, recession risk, particularly for parts of the West (the United States and some European economies), is elevated. The risk of a recession in the United States is estimated to be around a 30–40% tail risk.  What is recession? According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER, USA), a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months( two quarters), normally visible in GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” Key Indicators Warnings from the West to watch   The calm indicator of upcoming storm A. Macroeconomic Indicators B. Financial & Market Indicators C. Behavioural & Global Indicators How will INDIA get affected?  A. Negative Effects B. Positive Effects How can India gain out of this recession?  1. Strengthening Domestic Demand 2. Monetary and Financial Stability 3. Trade and External Sector Diversification 4. Fiscal Policy & Structural Reforms 5. Strategic and Institutional Measures While the spectre of a global recession looms over advanced economies, India stands at a relatively stronger macroeconomic position — with robust domestic demand, resilient banking systems, and prudent fiscal management. The challenge ahead is to transform global headwinds into opportunities for structural transformation and self-reliant growth.In the words of former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, “Crises are also opportunities to build stronger foundations.” With sound policies and reform-driven momentum, India can indeed turn an impending global recession into an inflection point towards Atmanirbhar, inclusive, and sustainable development.

BRICS Expansion: Can It Change the Global Financial Order? BRICS—originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—started as a group of emerging economies looking for a bigger voice in the global system. Over time, it grew into a powerful bloc, and now with countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, and Egypt joining, the alliance looks stronger than ever. The big question is: can this expansion really shake up the global financial order? Why Expansion Now? Many countries have been frustrated with a world economy dominated by the US and Europe. By adding resource-rich and fast-growing economies, BRICS is positioning itself as a counterweight to Western influence. Economic Power of the New BRICS A bigger share of global GDP. Control over key resources like oil, gas, and agriculture. A mix of manufacturing giants (China, India) and energy exporters (Saudi, Russia, Iran). This combination gives BRICS serious weight in global trade. The Dollar Question? One of BRICS’ main goals is to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Ideas of a common BRICS currency backed by gold or oil sound bold, but in reality, political differences and economic imbalances make it difficult. For now, the dollar isn’t going anywhere—but BRICS is pushing for gradual change. What It Means for Investors? Oil prices could see more influence from BRICS nations. Alternative payment systems may reshape global trade flows. India’s role is key—balancing between the West and BRICS while benefiting from both sides. Takeaway BRICS expansion won’t replace the dollar overnight, but it signals the rise of a more multipolar financial world. For investors, the lesson is clear: keep an eye on global shifts, diversify your portfolio, and don’t ignore the power of geopolitics in shaping markets.